da asessa » 25 agosto 2009, 17:00
The Ryanair base proposal – a route analysis
by Matthias A. Merzhäuser
As our sister daily The Malta Independent exclusively reported recently, the MTA is in discussions with Ryanair with regard to a base. It could well become one of the topics during the summer parliamentary recess. The following analysis is based on the routes suggested by Ryanair (TMID, 20 May).
ITALY
Milan-Bergamo
In an article in the Sunday Times of Malta of January 2005, I had pointed out that Bergamo particularly, as well as Bologna, were two routes that could make good money for Ryanair. But Ryanair’s profits should not be the prime concern.
After Alitalia and then low-cost carrier Volare pulled out, Air Malta increased capacity to Milan and now has a daily flight. In addition to this, there is now twice-weekly seasonal flight from Verona, which helps cover the area east of Milan (Air Malta) and west of Venice-Treviso (Ryanair).
Bergamo airport is just as near from the eastern outskirts of Milan as Malpensa is for the west. For point-to-point services both are really exchangeable as they cater for the same market. It is definitely no new area. For a Bergamo service no Malta base is necessary. Bergamo is a very interesting DIY-transit hub.
Generally, for Milan, maybe one could get someone else instead of Ryanair, as there are other options, say AirOne/Alitalia, even Easyjet. The fact is that expanded capacity is not needed for 11 months of the year because there already is overcapacity for these months. The Bergamo route would definitely be a big moneymaker for Ryanair, but it could be at the cost of volumes generated by Air Malta.
If there is a Bergamo run, the Verona summer run should not come back, though of course Bergamo would be year-round. Its negative impact on Malpensa traffic would of course also be year-round.
Turin:
From the suggested two airports in the north, maybe Turin is the lesser evil from the Air Malta perspective, though not really that far from Turin to Milan-Malpensa, just 100 kms of motorway, not actually that much further away than Malpensa from Milan.
The hinterland of Turin is sparsely populated so they will definitely need to draw passengers away from Milan onto that flight. If the frequency is not more than two flights weekly and one could be sure no other flights are brought in with some tricks from Malpensa or Bergamo, it might still be OK. Yields would definitely be hit and Air Malta might consequently create equilibrium by cutting its capacity in line with Ryanair’s.
Bologna
Bologna is already linked by Air Malta, which took it over after Meridiana.
Napoli
It would be very good if flights could be improved, as I have noted earlier (TMIS, 17 August).
Napoli is no easy outgoing market: Campania is a poor region with big social discrepancies. But with 5.8 million inhabitants – cannot one really run, say, twice a week? After all low trip costs (distance is slightly shorter than even Malta-Bari) make this flight more attractive also with not so great loads/yields.
Windjet, Air Malta, and Alitalia only deliver(ed) in the real peak season like August. Malta could profit from a Ryanair innovation. But first counter-check if Ryanair is also interested in Napoli’s airport, or if it is only giving that impression in Malta. Because Napoli-Capodichino airport is nearing capacity limits, it is not exactly an airport that is desperate for Ryanair, and there are already strong non-subsidized low-cost carriers there who might not be at all amused if Ryanair is brought in with its usual extra support. Therefore, it would be a bit surprising to see them there, while for Ryanair it certainly is a very interesting market, no doubt, so it might take it up without the usual “embracesâ€. The Salerno airport runway is too short for a B737-800. Napoli airport in turn is run by BAA, with which Ryanair does not have good relations. But again, if they want to run, sure.
Furthermore, I already suggested Pescara, temporarily a Ryanair base, as a sort of Rome-East (only 200kms away) not putting too much pressure on the core Rome service, for a summer schedule service. With Pescara one could activate a genuinely new area during the peak season, offering an alternative to Rome while not seriously damaging it. But Napoli is priority due to much larger population potential. If Ryanair wants to genuinely run Napoli-Malta, definitely support it, although it will not need a Malta-based plane for that. Also Bari and Venice work without it, with aircraft coming in from Hahn continuing after changing loads.
In the second part of this two-part series, Mr Merzhäuser looks at the potential of Eastern EU/Krakow, Tunisia, Turkey, and Israel routes as well as other related issues next week.
independent.com.mt
Antonio Sessa - Presidente Associazione FlySalerno